The ruble is preparing for a weekly increase against the dollar, but may fall sharply by the end of the month

The ruble rose against the US dollar in Moscow, poised for its first weekly gain in three. The Russian currency is on its seventh day of gains against the yuan, the longest winning streak since April. The Finance Ministry’s proposal for a new budget rule could contain ruble appreciation by using additional revenue to buy foreign currency from „friendly countries”, but the July tax period is just around the corner. In recent months, the payment of taxes by exporters was accompanied by the strengthening of the ruble, and the maximum was reached at the level of 50.01 at the end of the last period.

The ruble is up 1% to 57.7275/$, up 5.3% for the week. It is up 1.5% against the euro to 57.8975, up 7.7% for the week. The ruble could strengthen to 8.4 against the yuan in the short term, said Iskander Lutsko, a strategist at ITI Capital in Moscow. The parameters of the fiscal rule could be announced by the end of this month or in August, after which „everything will jump,” he said by email. Ruble +1.2% to 8.55 against the yuan, +8.4% for the week.

Since the beginning of the year, the Russian ruble has been the best currency in developing countries with a growth of 27.73% against the dollar. The Turkish lira showed the worst results since the beginning of the year, shedding 23.91%.

The ruble is likely to remain above the level of 57.75 rubles/$1 ahead of the weekend, the bank St. Petersburg said in a commentary.

„The ruble in recent days continues to strengthen in the first half of the day, but moderately weaken in the evening. So, on Thursday, the USD / RUB rate fell to 57.75 rubles / $ 1 at the moment, but at the end of the day it showed an increase of 0.05% to 58.30 rubles / $ 1. Such dynamics of the ruble was facilitated by yesterday’s news that the details of the new budget rule were submitted to the government by the Ministry of Finance. Nevertheless, while the discussion of the proposed measures continues, and the lack of specific announcements does not allow the ruble to show a more noticeable weakening. On Friday, the USD/RUB rate rises slightly. Other EM currencies are also predominantly weaker in the morning. Although the ruble still has potential for strengthening in general, the USD/RUB rate is likely to remain above 57.75 rubles/$1 ahead of the weekend. written by bank experts.