The bond market simply isn’t buying it

Treasury rates tried to rise today but fell back. Remaining: 2s -8.3bps – .16s 2bps – 3.710s 2.7bps – 3.52D The first thing to note is the yield curve inversion, which despite the current bull alignment is still 69bps. The accumulation in two seconds and .16% is also noteworthy. That is well below the Fed’s current rate of .375 percent and well below the 5 percent final rate that the FOMC predicted in points. In short, the market says there will be no upturn, or if there is, the next recession will be severe. US 2s daily This view is also reflected in Fed funds futures, which are priced at .82% and will fall to .32% next December. What I think we are seeing (or what the market is seeing) is a faster decline in inflation driven by economic activity. Today’s SandP Global PMI showed services amid the worst four-month decline since 2009. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at SandP Global Market Intelligence, said: „Business conditions are weakening as 2022 draws to a close and a sharp drop in PMI forecast GDP has eased by about 1.5% annually in the fourth quarter.At the same time, job growth has slowed as both manufacturing and service companies are much more cautious about hiring due to the drop in customer demand.