Can we get a real washout already?

The Nasdaq opened 2.0% lower today despite a second day of falling yields. I think the latest price action is more about quarter end than about anything new.

That said, we’re clearly in a tech bust, or an everything-that-was-overleveraged bust. I don’t think that’s a controversial statement anymore and nearly all investors have accepted that everyone got drunk on cheap money during the pandemic.

The problem is that these declines are like death by 1000 cuts. If you look at the Nasdaq since the start of the year, there’s no capitulation here. There’s steady selling, some bounces and then more selling, like we’re seeing today.

Nasdaq daily June 30

After the US CPI report, we had somewhat of a rout but given the bounce and now resumption of selling, that doesn’t look like a washout.

When you get down to it, the mania can be encapsulated by a single stock: Tesla. It’s still trading above the May lows and around 6x above pre-pandemic levels. Next year’s earnings are expected at $11.92, which puts it at a 56x P/E and much worse if government incentives are taken out.

Tesla stock chart

What’s particularly worrisome is that Elon Musk has hinted at some kind prosecution coming his way, which he’s framed as political. He also hasn’t tweeted in nearly a week, which has led to all kinds of speculation.

I would love to see this chart crack because I think that’s necessary before we get any kind of a bottom.