The US dollar gave back most of its gains and the initial frenzy over the non-farm payrolls report has largely dissipated. This likely reflects that non-farm payrolls are a lagging indicator and the Fed has already signaled that it will slow rates to 50 basis points. In short, the report wasn’t strong enough to make a difference, at least not yet. In addition, the weakening of the dollar was already visible this week, and the market is back to it. Or maybe it’s something more. I emphasized the importance of the household survey before the data and it was weak for the second month in a row. CIBC had this to say: The survey of , households, which is more volatile than this month’s wage survey but is often seen as a leading indicator of economic turning points in wages, showed a loss of 138,000. jobs, adding to job losses over the previous month. After stripping out self-employment for a measure comparable to payroll, including this month’s decline, non-management employment is roughly unchanged from March 2022 levels. That’s seven months of no job growth.
