Today, only 8% of professional investors on Wall Street believe that a US recession will not begin until 2024, while in February they were 45%, and they almost made up the majority.
The evolution of the opinions of professional investors on Wall Street regarding the timing of the recession in the United States. Source: conducted by Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank conducted a survey among professional investors on Wall Street to find out when they think a US recession will begin. It follows from its results that 88% of respondents expect a recession to arrive no later than the end of 2023, 17% this year, and 6% believe that it has already begun.
All of these groups of respondents show growth on a monthly basis: since the May survey, the first has grown by 10%, and the second – by 4%.
“Market sentiment is increasingly shifting towards a recession is imminent,” wrote Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reed. “It’s also worth noting that now only 8% of respondents believe that a recession will not come until 2024, while in February they were 45%, and they almost made up the majority.”
The strategist himself is inclined to think that the arrival of a recession in the United States so far looks more likely in 2023 than in 2022, however, “the risks are obviously growing.”
According to Bloomberg Economics, a US recession is almost inevitable in the next 24 months.
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