Most of the time, Kiwis tend to move side by side with Aussies. But based on the charts, there aren’t that many this time. While the Aussie is yet to break out, the Kiwi is up against the dollar after seeing its attempt to break above the 0.6500 brick wall. I would say that in part the market has to price a bit into RBA expectations, but for the sake of simplicity it is ultimately technical. And for NZD/USD, the rejection at 0.6500 has seen some dips and is now approaching a potential Kiwi breakout. The pair is now moving to the January low of 0.6190-00 and a break below which could start the next downtrend. Sellers shouldn’t get too comfortable just yet, as there are still a few more layers of support to work with. The confluence of the 100 (red line) and 200 day (blue line) moving averages at 0.6158 and 0.6185 are also important levels to keep in mind, as is the 38.2 Fib retracement of October’s 0.61 5 level. I would argue that sellers need to firmly break these levels as well to justify a potential downside to 0.6000 later.
