In 2022, global hunger in the world is not expected. However, already in 2023, if Russia does not resume exports in the usual working order, a real food shortage is very likely, said Khadzhimurad Belkharoev, Associate Professor of the International Economic Security Program at the Institute of World Economy and Business of the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia.
According to him, a record grain harvest is expected in Russia .
„For obvious reasons, Ukraine will go into a small minus, but Russia will increase this volume of grain without much effort,” the expert believes.
Forecasts of worsening grain yields in India and the US due to drought are driving up the price of food in the world, especially bread. Basically, according to Belkharoev, these forecasts are dropped in order to create an excessive demand for food and receive additional profit.
„We must not forget that in India, the USA and China – more than 40% of arable land has been reclaimed (that is, water has been supplied to them), they physically cannot go into a big minus, since vital products are grown on these watered lands,” — says the expert.
The main world agricultural producers, according to him, before the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions managed to stock up on agricultural fertilizers, therefore, they will also have an acceptable yield.
Thus, according to Belkharoev, no problems are expected this winter. „The next year and subsequent ones are dangerous,” the expert believes. According to him, if Russia fails to export bread and fertilizers in the usual working order, there will be a real shortage of food in the world. No one will be able to replace the supplier for grain by more than 20%, for fertilizers by 13%.
„There are no additional land resources in the world, and the only country that has enough arable and other land is Russia,” Belkharoev recalled. According to him, developing countries will not be able to pay more than $400 per ton of grain and more than $800 per ton of fertilizer, which means that there will be a food crisis and hunger in the world, especially in poor countries.